Short Term Projections Technical Notes
Short-term industry and occupational estimates and projections are presented for New York State and its ten labor market regions. Projections are used for assessing short-range trends in occupational employment and resulting occupational opportunities. The projections process consists of four principal phases:
- Developing industry employment totals for the base year and industry employment estimates for the projected year. Projected year estimates are a function of national, state and local area variables including industry employment, industry indicators and labor force data.
- Collecting and analyzing Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) program survey data from 52,000 New York employers on how many individuals they employ in each occupation. The results generate an occupational distribution or staffing pattern for each industry.
- Applying occupational staffing patterns from the OES survey to the industry employment totals to produce base year occupational employment estimates. In turn, expected staffing pattern changes are applied to the base year pattern. The modified staffing patterns are then applied to projected industry employment levels to obtain projected occupational employment levels.
- Applying replacement rates to the projected occupational employment levels and adding growth to obtain estimates of occupational openings for approximately 800 specific occupations.
Definitions and Concepts
The tables presented in this application contain the following items:
- Industry title and code - titles and codes are from the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).
- Occupational title and code - titles and codes are from the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) User Guide.
- Employment - number of workers estimated to be employed in an industry or occupation in the base year and in the projected year.
- Level (Numeric) and percent change - actual and percentage change in the number of workers employed in an industry or occupation between base year and projected year.
- Total, annual average openings - annual number of job openings expected in an occupation due to change plus separations, where separations equal labor force exits plus occupational transfers (for annual average openings based on replacements, growth plus replacement need).
- Growth, annual average openings - openings in an occupation due to industry expansion and the consequent need for additional workers.
- Replacement, annual average openings - calculated by weighing the number of people exiting the occupation against the number of people entering the occupation by age group. This net measurement is best for quantifying how many new people are needed to enter a given occupation, and, if training is required, to identify its minimum training requirements.
(Note: Individuals who change employers, but remain in the same occupation fall under the category of job turnover and are not included in this measure.)
Caution When using Estimates and Projections Data:
Occupational employment estimates should be interpreted as only an approximation of the true level of jobs in an area. The OES employer survey, which is the basis for occupational data, is subject to statistical error as a result of both the sampling process and the level of employer response to the survey mailings. In addition, employers may have problems in completing the survey.
Occupational projections, which are based on staffing patterns derived from the OES survey, are based upon past and current industrial and occupational trends. They serve to illustrate likely employment patterns, barring major changes from past trends. However, because the projection models do not take into account such factors as immigration, emergence of new occupations, relocation of employment opportunities, and major events, such as war, that would significantly alter the industrial structure of the economy, the occupational staffing patterns, or the rate of growth, they are the best possible estimates of the future job trends and cannot be exact numbers.
To carry out occupational employment projections at the national level, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) makes assumptions regarding rates of replacement and future staffing pattern changes. The New York State employment projections follow many of the same assumptions used by BLS.
There are a number of other key points to keep in mind when using occupational employment projections:
- OES data represent job positions, not the number of individuals employed.
- Jobs data are based on a place-of-work concept, thus employees are counted in the geographic area in which their employer is located, not where the employee lives.
- Projected employment data are annual averages, which may not accurately portray seasonal occupations in industries such as recreation and construction.
For additional background material regarding occupational estimates and projections, visit the Bureau of Labor Statistics website: http://www.bls.gov/emp/
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