Employment Prospects Technical Notes

Overview

Each occupation is assigned one of four descriptors. They describe the future employment prospects for that occupation. This is designed to make our website more useful for job seekers. The four descriptors are:

• Very Unfavorable
• Unfavorable
• Favorable
• Very Favorable

Two aspects of each occupation are used to determine its descriptor:

1. Projected total number of annual openings over the projections period.
2. Projected percentage growth rate over the projections period.

These two aspects are based on detailed occupational projections prepared by the New York State Department of Labor. For more information explaining occupational projections, see Long-Term Occupational Projections Technical Notes.

Definitions

The tables presented in this application contain the following items:

• Occupational code (SOC) and title - codes and titles are from the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) User Guide.
• Employment Prospects - Favorable/unfavorable descriptions.
• Annual average openings - annual number of job openings expected in an occupation due to change plus separations, where separations equal labor force exits plus occupational transfers. (Note: Individuals who change employers but remain in the same occupation fall under the category of job turnover and are not included in this measure.)
• Entry Level Education Required - typical education needed for entry.
• Work Experience Required - work experience in a related occupation.
• On-the-Job Training Required - typical on-the-job training needed to attain competency in the occupation.
• Most Common Education Attained by Members of this Occupation - based on all members of an occupation including experienced members.

How Employment Prospect Descriptors are Determined

In order to determine the descriptors for the employment prospects, a combination of growth rates and total openings are categorized and placed in a matrix (see below).

Growth Rates

Occupations are assigned one of five growth rate categories based on their projected percentage change in employment over the projections period. Those categories are:

• Decline
• Small or No Change
• Slow
• Moderate
• Fast

The table below describes how the categories are defined based on 10-year growth rates.

New York State

Growth Rate Categories
Category:	From 2018 To 2028, Employment Is Projected To:
Decline	Decrease
Small or No Change	Change 0.0% to +6.4%
Slow	Increase between (and including) +6.5% to +10.4%
Moderate	Increase between (and including) +10.5% and +18.4%
Fast	Increase more than +18.5%

Capital Region

Growth Rate Categories
Category:	From 2018 To 2028, Employment Is Projected To:
Decline	Decrease
Small or No Change	Change 0.0% to +5.0%
Slow	Increase between (and including) +5.1% to +10.69%
Moderate	Increase between (and including) +10.7% and +17.49%
Fast	Increase more than +17.5%

Central Region

Growth Rate Categories
Category:	From 2018 To 2028, Employment Is Projected To:
Decline	Decrease
Small or No Change	Change 0.0% to +3.59%
Slow	Increase between (and including) +3.6% to +10.19%
Moderate	Increase between (and including) +10.2% and +18.79%
Fast	Increase more than +18.8%

Finger Lakes

Growth Rate Categories
Category:	From 2018 To 2028, Employment Is Projected To:
Decline	Decrease
Small or No Change	Change 0.0% to +4.99%
Slow	Increase between (and including) +5.0% to +10.99%
Moderate	Increase between (and including) +11.0% and +18.29%
Fast	Increase more than +18.3%

Hudson Valley Region

Growth Rate Categories
Category:	From 2018 To 2028, Employment Is Projected To:
Decline	Decrease
Small or No Change	Change 0.0% to +4.89%
Slow	Increase between (and including) +4.9% to +10.69%
Moderate	Increase between (and including) +10.7% and +17.79%
Fast	Increase more than +17.8%

Long Island Region

Growth Rate Categories
Category:	From 2018 To 2028, Employment Is Projected To:
Decline	Decrease
Small or No Change	Change 0.0% to +4.69%
Slow	Increase between (and including) +4.7% to +10.39%
Moderate	Increase between (and including) +10.4% and +17.69%
Fast	Increase more than +17.7%

Mohawk Valley Region

Growth Rate Categories
Category:	From 2018 To 2028, Employment Is Projected To:
Decline	Decrease
Small or No Change	Change 0.0% to +2.69%
Slow	Increase between (and including) +2.7% to +8.89%
Moderate	Increase between (and including) +8.9% and 16.29%
Fast	Increase more than +16.3%

New York City Region

Growth Rate Categories
Category:	From 2018 To 2028, Employment Is Projected To:
Decline	Decrease
Small or No Change	Change 0.0% to +5.79%
Slow	Increase between (and including) +5.8% to +10.19%
Moderate	Increase between (and including) +10.2% and +18.69%
Fast	Increase more than +18.7%

North Country Region

Growth Rate Categories
Category:	From 2018 To 2028, Employment Is Projected To:
Decline	Decrease
Small or No Change	Change 0.0% to +0.29%
Slow	Increase between (and including) +0.3% to 6.49%
Moderate	Increase between (and including) +6.5% and +14.19%
Fast	Increase more than +14.2%

Southern Tier Region

Growth Rate Categories
Category:	From 2018 To 2028, Employment Is Projected To:
Decline	Decrease
Small or No Change	Change 0.0% to +2.29%
Slow	Increase between (and including) +2.3% to +7.19%
Moderate	Increase between (and including) +7.2% and +12.99%
Fast	Increase more than +13.0%

Western NY Region

Growth Rate Categories
Category:	From 2018 To 2028, Employment Is Projected To:
Decline	Decrease
Small or No Change	Change 0.0% to +4.99%
Slow	Increase between (and including) +5.0% to +9.79%
Moderate	Increase between (and including) +9.8% and +14.99%
Fast	Increase more than +15.0%

Total Openings*

Occupations are assigned to one of three categories, based on total openings:

• Small (the 25% of occupations with the smallest number of openings)
• Medium (the middle 50% of occupations based on the number of openings)
• Large (the 25% of occupations with the largest number of openings)

*Total Openings are used to precisely assign the Small, Medium or Large size categories. Annual Average Openings, as displayed in the Statewide and Regional Projections, refer to the number of job openings expected in an occupation due to change plus separations, where separations equal labor force exits plus occupational transfers.

Descriptors

We assign four employment prospect descriptors to occupations based on their total openings and growth rate (see table below).

Descriptors
Total Openings	Employment Growth Rate
	Decline	Small or No Change	Slow	Moderate	Fast
Small	Very Unfavorable	Unfavorable	Unfavorable	Favorable	Favorable
Medium	Very Unfavorable	Unfavorable	Favorable	Favorable	Very Favorable
Large	Unfavorable	Favorable	Favorable	Very Favorable	Very Favorable

 

• Very Unfavorable - occupations with a small or medium number of total openings and a declining growth rate.
• Unfavorable - slow-growing occupations and occupations with small or no change with a small number of total openings, occupations with small or no change with a medium number of total openings, and declining occupations with a large number of total openings. For these occupations, growth rates and numbers of total openings mean fewer opportunities relative to other occupations.
• Favorable - moderate growth occupations with a small and a medium number of total openings, fast-growing occupations with a small number of openings, slow-growing occupations with a medium and a large number of total openings, and occupations with small or no change with a large number of total openings. For these occupations, prospects for employment are good.
• Very favorable - occupations with a moderate growth rate and a large number of total openings as well as fast-growing occupations that have a medium or a large number of total openings.  These occupations offer the best prospects for employment.

Annual Average Openings

Annual average openings refer to the number of job openings expected in an occupation due to change plus separations, where separations equal labor force exits plus occupational transfers.  What does this mean?

• A change in openings is due to industry expansion or contraction and the resulting change in the need for additional workers.
• Occupational separations are the sum of individuals exiting the labor force and individuals transferring to a different occupation. (Note: Individuals who change employers but remain in the same occupation fall under the category of job turnover and are not included in the measure.)

Education and Training

New York State occupational projections follow the Bureau of Labor Statistics' educational and training categories which were released with the national 2010-2020 occupational projections. Previously, a single measure of education and training was used. This was replaced with three categories:

• Entry Level Education Required - typical education needed for entry.
• Work Experience Required - work experience in a related occupation.
• On-The-Job-Training Required - typical on-the-job training needed to gain competency in the occupation.

A fourth occupational characteristic, Most Common Education Attained by Members of this Occupation, is based on all members of an occupation including experienced members. This data comes from the American Community Survey.

Education and Training Classification System Definitions

Entry Level Education Required - typical education needed for entry.

This category best describes the typical level of education that most workers need to enter the occupation. Occupations are assigned one of the following eight education levels:

 

• Doctoral or professional degree. Completion of a doctoral degree (Ph.D.) usually requires at least 3 years of full-time academic work beyond a bachelor’s degree. Completion of a professional degree usually requires at least 3 years of full-time academic study beyond a bachelor’s degree. Examples of occupations for which a professional degree is the typical form of entry-level education include lawyers, physicians and surgeons, and dentists.
• Master's degree. Completion of this degree usually requires 1 or 2 years of full-time academic study beyond a bachelor’s degree. Examples of occupations in this category include statisticians, physician assistants, and educational, vocational, and school counselors.
• Bachelor's degree. Completion of this degree generally requires at least 4 years, but not more than 5 years, of full-time academic study beyond high school. Examples of occupations in this category include budget analysts, dietitians, and civil engineers.
• Associate's degree. Completion of this degree usually requires at least 2 years but not more than 4 years of full-time academic study beyond high school. Examples of occupations in this category include mechanical drafters, respiratory therapists, and dental hygienists.
• Postsecondary non-degree award. These programs lead to a certificate or other award, but not a degree. The certificate is awarded by the educational institution and is the result of completing formal postsecondary schooling. Certification, which is issued by a professional organization or certifying body, is not included here. Some postsecondary nondegree award programs last only a few weeks, while others may last 1 to 2 years. Examples of occupations in this category include nursing aides, emergency medical technicians (EMTs) and paramedics, and hairstylists.
• Some college, no degree. This category signifies the achievement of a high school diploma or equivalent plus the completion of one or more postsecondary courses that did not result in a degree or award. Examples of occupations in this category are actors and computer support specialists.
• High school diploma or equivalent. This category signifies the completion of high school or an equivalent program resulting in the award of a high school diploma or an equivalent, such as the General Educational Development (GED) credential. Examples of occupations in this category include social and human service assistants and pharmacy technicians.
• Less than high school. This category signifies the completion of any level of primary or secondary education that did not result in the award of a high school diploma or equivalent. Examples of occupations in this category include janitors and cleaners, cashiers, and carpet installers.

Work Experience Required - work experience in a related occupation.

For some occupations, work experience in a related occupation may be a typical method of entry. The majority of occupations in this category are first-line supervisors or managers of service, sales, and production occupations. Although work experience in a related occupation is beneficial for all occupations, this metric is meant to capture work experience that is commonly considered necessary by employers, or is a commonly accepted substitute for other, more formal types of training or education. Occupations are assigned one of the following four categories that deal with length of time spent gaining related work experience:

 

• More than 5 years. This is assigned to occupations if more than 5 years of work experience in a related occupation is typically needed for entry. Examples include construction managers and computer and information systems managers.
• 1 to 5 years. To enter occupations in this category, workers typically need 1-5 years of work experience in a related occupation. Examples include marketing managers and database administrators.
• Less than 1 year. Examples of occupations that typically need less than 1 year of work experience in a related occupation include restaurant cooks and industrial truck and tractor operators.
• None. No work experience in a related occupation is typically needed. Examples are audiologists and actuaries.

On-The-Job-Training Required - typical on-the-job training needed to attain competency in the occupation.

This category encompasses any additional training or preparation that is typically needed, once employed in an occupation, to attain competency in the skills needed in that occupation. Training is occupation-specific rather than job-specific; skills learned can be transferred to another job in the same occupation. Occupations are assigned one of the following six training categories:

 

• Internship/residency. An internship or residency is training that involves preparation in a field such as medicine or teaching, generally under supervision in a professional setting, such as a hospital or classroom. This type of training may occur before one is employed. Completion of an internship or residency program is commonly required for state licensure or certification in fields including medicine, counseling, architecture, and teaching. This category does not include internships that are suggested for advancement. Examples of occupations in the internship/residency category include physicians and surgeons and marriage and family therapists.
• Apprenticeship. An apprenticeship is a formal relationship between a worker and sponsor that consists of a combination of on-the-job training and related occupation-specific technical instruction in which the worker learns the practical and theoretical aspects of an occupation. Apprenticeship programs are sponsored by individual employers, joint employer-and- labor groups, and employer associations. The typical apprenticeship program provides at least 144 hours of occupation-specific technical instruction and 2,000 hours of on-the-job training per year over a 3-to-5 year period. Examples of occupations in the apprenticeship category include electricians and structural iron and steel workers.
• Long-term on-the-job training. More than 12 months of on-the-job training or, alternatively, combined work experience and formal classroom instruction, are needed for workers to develop the skills to attain competency. Training is occupation specific rather than job specific; therefore, skills learned can be transferred to another job in the same occupation. This on-the-job training category also includes employer-sponsored training programs. Such programs include those offered by fire and police academies and schools for air traffic controllers and flight attendants. In other occupations—nuclear power reactor operators, for example—trainees take formal courses, often provided at the jobsite, to prepare for the required licensing exams. This category excludes apprenticeships. Examples of occupations in the long-term on-the-job training category include opticians and automotive service technicians and mechanics.
• Moderate-term on-the-job training. Skills needed for a worker to attain competency in an occupation that can be acquired during 1 to 12 months of combined on-the-job experience and informal training. Training is occupation-specific rather than job-specific; therefore, skills learned can be transferred to another job in the same occupation. This on-the-job training category also includes employer-sponsored training programs. Examples of occupations in the moderate-term category include school bus drivers and advertising sales agents.
• Short-term on-the-job training. Skills needed for a worker to attain competency in an occupation that can be acquired during 1 month or less of on-the-job experience and informal training. Training is occupation-specific rather than job specific; therefore, skills learned can be transferred to another job in the same occupation. This on-the-job training category also includes employer sponsored training programs. Examples of occupations in the short-term category include retail salespersons and maids and housekeeping cleaners.
• None. There is no additional occupation-specific training or preparation typically required to attain competency in the occupation. Examples of occupations that do not require occupation-specific on-the-job training include geographers and pharmacists.

Usual Education Attained by Members of this Occupation - based on all members of an occupation including experienced members.

Some occupations usually require education that is higher than entry level requirements.

 

For more information, see the Bureau of Labor Statistics website at http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_education_tech.htm